The Red Sox are facing an uncertain offseason, with the first order of business surely being replacing chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who the club fired earlier this month. Once a new head of baseball operations is in place, however, it seems extension negotiations could be on their offseason list of tasks.
Alex Speier of the Boston Globe indicates that it is “likely” that the organization will open talks with young hurler Brayan Bello regarding a potential long-term deal this offseason. Speier also relays right-hander Nick Pivetta’s thoughts on a possible long-term deal with Boston, with the 30-year-old speaking positively of the organization and saying, “You don’t leave any doors closed. Leave them all open and see where it goes.”
That Pivetta, who posted a brutal 6.30 ERA across the first six weeks of the season before being demoted to the bullpen, has finished his 2023 campaign as a potential extension candidate speaks volumes regarding his performance in recent months. Since his initial demotion to the bullpen, Pivetta has posted strong numbers over the course of 102 2/3 innings in a swing role that’s seen him make eight starts and 22 relief appearances. In that time, Pivetta posted a 3.16 ERA and 3.27 FIP with a massive 34.9% strikeout rate against a solid 7.7% walk rate. That’s good for a 27.2 K-BB% that’s outclassed only by Braves fireballer Spencer Strider among pitchers with at least 100 innings of work since May 21, the date of Pivetta’s first relief appearance.
Pivetta’s also managed to keep the excellent results up during the season’s final month, which saw him return to the club’s rotation on a regular basis. During the month of September, Pivetta has posted a 2.43 ERA with a 2.86 FIP and a 34.1% strikeout rate and a microscopic 4.0% walk rate. Pivetta’s fantastic finish to the 2023 campaign leaves him with overall numbers that give him the look of a solid mid-rotation starter. Among the 73 pitchers who have posted at least 140 innings of work this season, Pivetta’s 3.96 FIP ranks 32nd, his 4.04 ERA ranks 38th, and his 31.2% strikeout rate is bested only by Strider and Blake Snell.
Of course, with Pivetta already slated to hit free agency following the 2024 season, a potential extension would likely come at some sort of discount relative to full market value, though perhaps not a particularly steep one given the limited team control remaining. Last offseason’s free agent market saw mid-rotation arms like Jameson Taillon (4 years, $68MM) and Taijuan Walker (4 years, $72MM) both receive in the range of $70MM while sporting similar numbers to those Pivetta has posted the last two seasons, though both Taillon and Walker were younger than Pivetta will, who is set to hit free agency prior to his age-32 campaign.
As for Bello, the young right-hander posted solid numbers in his sophomore campaign, with a 4.24 ERA and 4.53 FIP across 157 innings of work. Those numbers are inflated by a brutal September that’s seen Bello allow 22 runs over 26 innings of work, resulting in a 7.62 ERA. Even so, Bello’s looked more like a fourth or fifth starter to this point in his career than anything else, with roughly league average results and peripherals. His most eye-catching stat is an impressive 56.2% ground ball rate, a figure topped by only Alex Cobb and Logan Webb among pitchers with at least 150 innings this year.
Between the mixed results to this point in his big league career, his youth, and his pre-arbitration status, recent comparisons are few and far between when considering what a Bello extension might look like. Freddy Peralta’s five-year, $15.5MM extension is perhaps the nearest comparison, though Bello’s been better than Peralta was in the first two seasons of his career. Peralta had yet to reach 100 innings pitched in a season and had a career ERA+ nearly 15% lower than Bello’s at the time of his extension.
