The regular season is over, so it’s time to take a last look at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. Last week, we looked at the AL and NL Cy Young races and the AL MVP chase.

If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by each batting title-qualifying hitter, and calculate the damage they “should have” produced based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score - 100 equals league average, the higher the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter’s “Tru” Production+, and then spread it across their plate appearance bulk to determine their “Tru” Batting Runs Above Average. Lastly, I add in Fangraphs’ Baserunning and Defensive Runs, resulting in Total Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA). Ronald Acuna Jr. has been leading the pack all season. We took a final in-season look at this race just a couple weeks back.

While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..

The Braves have quite a few legitimate MVP ballot considerations, including 3B Austin Riley (22.5 TPRAA). Like most Atlanta position players, he answered the bell virtually every day, playing sound defense but most of all offering big power. He hits all batted ball types materially harder than average and only needs to tighten up his K/BB profile to reach his peak. He’s a young Mike Schmidt without the elite glove. Cubs’ SS Dansby Swanson (24.2 TPRAA) slumped a bit down the stretch as his club collapsed and missed the playoffs. He was basically a league average bat but offers elite defense at a premium position. He finished 2nd in the NL MVP race according to this method in 2022. Young C William Contreras (25.1 TPRAA) was quietly the Brewers’ premier position player this season. He’s a strong defensive receiver who crushes the baseball and carries a heavy workload. He’s one of quite a few players on this list with a low average launch angle (4.5 degrees) that has room to grow.

Mets’ SS Francisco Lindor (25.7 TPRAA) finished with a flourish and jumped up a couple spots since the last update. Durability is a recurring theme on this list and it is one of his calling cards. Most of his value above average stems from his defense and baserunning, but 30+ homer shortstops don’t grow on trees. Padres’ RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (30.0 TPRAA) dropped out of the Top Five since the last update. Like Lindor, much of his value above average came from baserunning and defense, but Tatis was actually quite unlucky on balls in play this season - his 110 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score was way below his 198 adjusted mark. Thanks, marine layer.

#5 - LF Juan Soto (Padres) - 34.8 TPRAA - A strong finish bumps Soto up into the Top Five. On bat value alone, he was the 2nd most valuable player in the NL this season behind Acuna, but he was hurt by a -16.9 run Baserunning/Defense adjustment. Soto hit his liners harder than any NL regular (100.1 mph average), nosing out Acuna, and finished just behind Acuna and Matt Olson with a 96.5 mph average fly ball exit speed. He’s another player with a low average launch angle (6.2 degrees) who could tap into much more power as he matures.

#4 - 1B Matt Olson (Braves) - 43.0 TPRAA - Olson drops a spot to 4th in the season-ending rankings. Now everyone knows about the brutish raw power (96.6 mph average fly ball exit speed, tied for 1st in the NL) and the 54 homers, but let’s appreciate some of the more subtler aspects of his game. Only Acuna among this group hits his ground balls harder on average than Olson (89.6 mph average grounder exit speed), and he sprays them around to all fields, keeping infielders honest. Sure, he strikes out a bunch and isn’t a great defender, but he draws his walks and has way more dimensions to his game than the Adam Dunns and Chris Davises.

#3 - 1B Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) - 44.1 TPRAA - Talk about an offensive game with subtlety. Freeman is an absolute line drive machine who is in the process of aging very gracefully. His average fly ball exit speed (91.2 mph) is the lowest of any player being discussed today, but he makes up for it with sheer fly ball volume - which is unaccompanied by a bunch of pop ups. Only Mookie Betts hit more fly balls than Freeman’s 194 among this group, and Betts hit 23 more pop ups. Only Acuna hit fewer pop ups - and he hit one fewer, despite hitting 49 fewer flies. Freeman is a superior technician who also runs the bases extremely well despite below average speed.

#2 - RF Mookie Betts (Dodgers) - 49.3 TPRAA - Betts is a unique talent with uncanny versatility and a knack for improving on his areas of weakness. He’s a high launch angle guy (20.6 degree average), and that has pros and cons. The cons include high pop up rates and often a focus on batted ball type over authority. Mookie cut his pop up rate and improved his authority this season, and his offensive profile now looks like it will age better. Sure, he still relies on extreme fly ball volume and is extremely pull-focused, particularly on the ground, but his strong K/BB profile and elite durability give him arguably the highest floor in the game.

#1 - RF Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) - 91.1 TPRAA - Yup, you read that right. For all of the great things one can say about Betts, this is not a race. On bat alone, Acuna wins easily, 97.1 to 47.4 runs. How can the gap be this large, when they’re in a dead heat with 8.3 fWAR? Well, it’s because Acuna was incredibly unlucky on balls in play this season. He did less damage (173 Unadjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) on fly balls than Soto (183), Riley (199) and especially Olson (287). Their Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Scores, which are based on exit speed - Acuna and Olson tied at 251, followed by Soto (223) and Riley (175). How about liners? Acuna’s had an average exit speed of 100.0 mph, 0.1 mph behind Soto’s league-leading mark - and he actually posted below league average production (96 Unadjusted Contact Score) on them. His Adjusted Line Drive Contact Score was far higher at 126. Acuna “should have” batted .368-.436-.672 this season. He too is a low launch angle guy (7.4 degree average) so has even more power upside, a truly scary thought. Oh, and he stole 73 bases. This should not be a contest.

This exact method has been used for hitters going back to the 2019 season, and while it’s largely been in agreement with the AL MVP voters, it hasn’t synched up with the NL voters since 2019, when Cody Bellinger won the award and led the league with 69.6 TPRAA. In 2020, Freddie Freeman won MVP but finished 3rd in TPRAA with 29.9 behind leader Fernando Tatis Jr. (32.5). In 2021, MVP Bryce Harper (56.3 TPRAA) finished 2nd behind Juan Soto (68.0). Both of those years featured acceptable MVP choices - not so much in 2022, when Paul Goldschmidt (16.5 TPRAA, 7th) won the award instead of TPRAA leader Freeman (51.1 TPRAA). Acuna’s 2023 TPRAA total is just behind Aaron Judge’s 2022 93.6 mark.