The Oakland As said Tuesday that with the support of Major League Baseball, they would start looking into the possibility of relocating after plans for a $12 billion mixed-use development around a new ballpark at the Howard Terminal site seemed to stall. A deep look into the possibilities for the As, however, suggests the odds of relocation are long.

Since 1994, when Walter Haas put the As up for sale, there has been a looming possibility of the club leaving Oakland.

When I bought the Oakland As 14 years ago, it was to keep them from moving away from this area, Haas said at the time.

In 2000, six years after Steve Schott and Ken Hofmann purchased the club from Haas, the threat of a move to Santa Clara popped up. We covet spots in Santa Clara County, Schott said, and were talking to people who want us down there.

And so it has been, whether with former owner Lewis Wolff or current team president Dave Kavalsame as it ever was. To add a cherry on top of it all, its been 15 years since then-commissioner Bud Selig put together a blue-ribbon committee to address the As ballpark issue.

Kaval said in a letter to fans this week that the As remain committed to Oakland. Rather, theyre committed the way the Expos were to Montrealcommitted until they werent.

The reason that the Asand for that matter any other clubhave issues getting a new ballpark built is simply a matter of cost: They take billions of dollars to construct. In the years since MLBs last relocation in 2005, when the Montreal Expos became the Washington Nationals, host cities have gotten wiser about funneling tax dollars into private investment in ballparks, and the costs have also become so high that owners are looking to ballpark villages for ancillary development that can offset the costs.

Still, despite the challenges with building a new ballpark, a relocation by the As seems unlikely. They may eventually do so, but so many stars have to align that there might not be enough in the Milky Way.

To start, the As would very likely need to relocate within the western part of the U.S. It would be hard enough to get 75% of the leagues owners to vote in favor of any relocation, let alone one where division or league realignment would come into play.

While any market might jump at the opportunity, three markets seem to come up often in conversation: Las Vegas; Portland, Oregon; and Vancouver, British Columbia.

Each would come with unique problems.

Lets start with the fact that while Vancouver is a beautiful market that has the size and regional sports network capability to support a club, to date, no one has stepped forward with an interest in placing a club there. But even if that happened, there would be issues. While its almost assured the global pandemic will be over by the time any serious discussion of relocation of the As gains traction, Covid-19 by that time could still be an endemic disease, with the possibility of flare-ups occurring. Currently, Canada has closed its borders to travel back and forth into the U.S., which has made the Toronto Blue Jays nomads, with home games at their spring training facility in Florida and, soon, in Buffalo, New York, where they played last year.

The other issue that is always in play with international markets is player salaries. All players are paid in U.S. dollar value, so if and when the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar drops, players based in Canada are hurt.

Of the three aforementioned markets, Portland is the only one with an active effort to bring Major League Baseball to its city. The Portland Diamond Project is the most current effort, after a group was in the derby for the relocation of the Expos in the early 2000s. (As a matter of transparency, I was part of that group.)

The Portland group is well organized, has been in contact with the league, presented a feasible capital structure and has targeted a location on the banks of the Willamette River just north of downtown that would support a ballpark village and anchor a new development section of the city.

The problem is that the effort has largely stalled.

Its been almost a year and a half since the group had any news around securing a ballpark location. As its exclusive window for the waterfront location passed, talk of possibly redeveloping the Lloyd Center Mall site in Northeast Portland has become more and more of a conversation.

Another challenge for the Portland effort: There is no interim ballpark. In almost any relocation scenario, an interim facility would be needed while a new state-of-the-art ballpark was being built. Its possible, although not likely, that the As could use Hillsboro Stadium in the suburbs of Portland, about 15 miles outside the core. But that location is currently used by the Single-A Hillsboro Hops.

In what might be a sign that the group isnt exactly jumping up and down to woo the As, the Portland Baseball Group said it had no comment at this time.

Maybe this is due to timing. Portland is now faced with a public relations problem.

Like other major markets on the West Coast, homelessness has become a significant problem. Once one of the top development markets in the country, Portland saw its low-rent apartments gobbled up by investors. Many were evicted or could not meet the significant rent increase when the newly remodeled locations opened back up. When the pandemic hit, it forced even more onto the street. Couple that with near-daily protests for over 100 days, and the city has dropped significantly in the quality profile it once had. It was so bad that Craig Cheek, the head of the Portland Diamond Project, contacted Mayor Ted Wheeler to inform him that a planned trip by MLB commissioner Rob Manfred had been called off.

Sorry to pile on, but need to convey that this is having an extremely negative impact and really poor backdrop to our effort in bringing an MLB franchise to Portland, Cheek wrote to the mayor, as reported by the Oregonian in October. We were scheduled to host the Commissioner and other MLB execs out here to Portland after the postseason and World Series. Cheek added: Neither the league nor our team feel comfortable in showcasing and hosting in downtown Portland at this juncture. We must get this under control and get back to celebrating what is great about the city we love.

But there might also be something more central to PDPs apparent lack of initial interest, which well get to later.

Portland may have struggled to secure development, but that never seems to be a problem in Las Vegas. Development is a constant and something that those who live there expect in and around the Strip.

But if Las Vegas has an issue for Major League Baseball, its that the city is late to the game.

The NHL proved that the market would support a major sports team when the Golden Knights arrived. So stunning was their first season on the ice that they became darlings of the city. Now, the Raiders have relocated to Las Vegas, which places the NFL in the mix.

Major League Baseball is a different animal, with its 81 home games and its heavy reliance on local media rights. A regional sports network deal in the $2 billion range is considered near the floor.

Supporting an MLB franchise would be exceptionally difficult for Las Vegas because of its population per franchise, with the NFL and the NHL already in town. It would be tough to fill the stands with so many home games, and having so many teams would also chew into the sponsor base, although Vegas, more so than just about any other market, is a draw for businesses that may not headquarter there.

In addition, the Triple-A Las Vegas Aviators come into the mix. As part of Minor League Baseballs move under MLBs umbrella this past year, a provision was added that says if an MLB club moves into a market where a Triple-A team is located, that ownership group would be compensated. That would be a factor should the As look to relocate to Vegas.

The wild card would be the TV deal. Currently, the Las Vegas designated market area (DMA) used to measure television market size ranks just 29than indication that outside of Las Vegas proper, theres not much besides sagebrush. If the As were to relocate there, they would likely need to retain their current broadcast territory, which covers the Bay Area and elsewhere.

A thorny problem for any market MLB may seek to relocate or expand to is this: One or more clubs claim every place in the U.S. That would create multiple headaches in the case of Las Vegas, a city claimed by six clubs (As, Giants, Padres, Dodgers, Angels and Diamondbacks). For Vegas, though, that long list of clubs might actually work to its benefit. With so many clubs claiming the market, Manfred would certainly spin the matter as having too many in one place. As he said to me in 2015, As a general proposition, I do not see the television territories for the clubs as a significant issue in considering expansion in domestic markets. He then added, I think the Baltimore/Washington matter was just too tight in terms of proximity, a reference to the relocation of the Montreal Expos to D.C. and the creation of MASN to indemnify the Baltimore Orioles. I dont think that if there was relocation into a clubs outer territory that it would be such a problem.

The question looming over all this is: Would John Fisher wish to remain the owner of the As if the club relocates? While the As have had one of the leagues lowest player payrolls for decades, it is believed that Fisher has been profitable in his ownership of the club.

Back to my comment on Portland earlier: Maybe the reason a group isnt so excited for the As is that theres little in it for them. After all, an investor group that would pay around $2 billion for a ballpark would surely like to have some say in owning the club. If Fisher stayed on, he would assuredly remain the controlling partner with the majority stake. Having investors in the ballpark be only bit players for the current owner might not be appealing.

Lets be honest: The Oakland As would rather stay in Oakland. They know their market. Anywhere else is an unknown and untried location. But saying they are looking to relocate is certainly one way to try to get politicians moving on the Howard Terminal location and put the matter to bed.

Still, dont just assume that the As are bluffing. After all, many in Montreal thought MLB was bluffing when it said that it was going to contract the Expos and that, if it couldnt, theyd be up for relocation. Move to D.C.? many fans said at the time. The Senators failed there twice. The league isnt going to move the Expos there. Well, they didnt until they did. That could be the case for the As, too. Its just a terribly complicated matter to pull off with no knight in shining armor on the horizon.